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Climate change theory barks up wrong tree, study shows
Tim Radford
Friday December 9, 2005
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,1663414,00.html?gusrc=rss
Climate scientists could be about to give oak, ash and maple a
bad name. They warn today that expanding forests in the temperate
zones of Europe, the US and Asia could add to global warming.
Johannes Feddema of the University of Kansas and six colleagues
from the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research report in Science
journal that they looked at changes in land use - the growth of
cities, clearing of forests for agriculture, and draining of marshes
- and their impact on climate change in the next 100 years. They
confirmed something environmentalists have predicted for decades
- the destruction of the Amazon forest would make the local climate
2C (4F) warmer because trees soak up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,
and burning them releases it. But then the scientists looked at
temperate zones and found the opposite.
Simulations predicted the conversion of north American and European
forests and grassland to agriculture would cool the region and counteract
the effects of global warming by 25%-50%. This is because ripening
corn and other staples would reflect more sunlight back into space,
and release more moisture into the air, while dark forests would
absorb sunlight and send thermometers soaring. Ken Caldeira and
a Carnegie Institution team backed the finding in Geophysical Research
Letters. "We were hoping to find that growing forests in the
US would help slow global warming. But if we are not careful, growing
forests could make global warming even worse."
In July, a Newcastle University team argued that forests soaked
up water and evaporated it into the atmosphere twice as fast as
grassland or crops. In September, European researchers showed that
in the hot summer of 2003, most of the carbon stored in forests
in the previous four years was released back into the atmosphere,
to accelerate global warming and trigger yet more heatwaves. Such
findings could exasperate US utility companies that have planted
forests to compensate for fossil fuel use, and infuriate ecologists
and conservationists who wish to protect forests. The Kansas team
called its study a "first step" and Prof Caldeira said:
"I like forests. They provide good habitats for plants and
animals, and tropical forests are good for climate, so we should
be particularly careful to preserve them. But in terms of climate
change, we should focus our efforts on things that can really make
a difference, like improving efficiency ..."
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